Remembering 9/11

[Moggy]

I came across this thread in the CombatSim archives:

http://www.combatsim.com/cgi-bin/ubbcgi ... =000701&p=

[Wudpecker]

I was struck by the predictions of "Lady Z" after hearing about the 9-11 disaster.

People, I am grieved. I am crying. I am so in grief.
The face of the world has changed forever. International relations will never be the same. This will result in so many things and new policies and new politics. Beyond comprehension. A climate of hardening stances, wars, suspicion, racism, mounting tensions. Stag is right.

"Stag" predicted a strong U.S. response.

When you consider 2 wars (Iraq and Afghanistan) and a "war" on terrorism, plus a near-bankrupt financial system that led to worldwide recession partly because of those wars and other things, she was right that things have gone bad.

[Moggy]

The balance of economic and military power may be tipping away from the Anglo-Americans who have held it since Trafalgar.

It may be a new world order that we English speakers will have to get used to.

[Wudpecker]

Well and simply said, Moggy.
But why Trafalgar?

The economic and industrial model (used by the U.S. and Japan especially) in the 20th Century is a peculiar one. It is a model now being led into the 21st Century by China.

The "new" economic model is Consumerism: the idea that you can produce and sell consumer goods not only to other nations by export, but to your own people as well. Making yourself wealthy. Kind of pulling yourself up by your own bootstraps while you sell bootlaces abroad.

It's actually not so new: it's a variation of Merchantilism--simply the business of buying up raw materials, processing them, and selling the finished goods back to the nations that provided the raw materials. Something that's been done for centuries. Like Britain did with fabrics mills and perhaps even tea in the 18th and 19th Centuries.
China did that too in olden times with silks and ceramics ("table China"). Until other nations like Britain and Germany caught up.
Now China is doing it again with other goods. Driving itself forward with consumer demand and aggressive exports.

It works. As long as your industries and technology are a jump ahead of the competition--or your prices are lowest. As happened in the 20th Century after two major wars. Japan is one of those nations that leap-frogged ahead as it pulled itself up from the devastation of war. It started with cheap goods ("Made in Japan" was not considered a good recommendation in the late 1940's and early '50s) then emphasized high quality and technological advancement in such things as cameras and cars like Hybrids. For instance, the new "white" LED lights were developed by the Japanese in just the last few years by inventing and producing a blue-toned Light-Emitting Diode (LED). These low-energy LED lights will soon be everywhere if they are not already.

But Japan has been flagging a bit with Big Brother China forging ahead in the new century with low-cost consumer goods. History repeats itself--sorta.

The rest of the world has also been catching up fast to the latest technological revolution of computers, cell phones, and related high-tech stuff. They can see where the money is. High-tech is the place to be.
The Anglo-American lead has dwindled away.
What will take their place?
You can bet it will be something Gee-Whiz like white light LED's. A must-have. We can see 3-Dimensional TV is on its way. I think something even more amazing will pop up. Maybe several "Gee Whizzers".

The next and most important question is how to pay a growing world population so it can afford the Gee-Whiz that's sure to come. Consumers must have money to consume.
Aye, matey, there's the rub.

[Moggy]

Trafalgar I take as the date when Anglo-Saxon military supremacy was established (based of course on British economic power). The only serious challengers in the 19th century were Imperial Germany and the USA. The tragedy of the completely unnecessary first world war followed by the inevitable second world war destroyed the German attempt at German economic/military supremacy, and corresponded with the decline and fall of British power, who effectively handed the torch to their translantic cousins. American power ultimately defeated the only serious rival in the USSR, but the period of sole supremacy looks likely to last a very short period.

China is the second largest economy at the moment, and will continue to grow. But it will suffer a relapse when its politics catch up with its economics. It's almost fascist-like state capitalism can only last a short period.

My money is on India. Democracy. Free market. Cheap labour. It's students and academics are free thinkers in the way that Chinas' are not.

[Wudpecker]

Very interesting analysis, Moggy.
I can see why you like India. There is a good reason why the U.S. Prez chose that nation for his initial visit recently. Economics is one reason.
Another might be the political/military situation with Pakistan.
If India and Pakistan can reach some solutions to borders in Kashmir and other places, a very big problem in that region can be solved. But that's also a very big "If".

Former Pakistani President Musharaff complained a bit about this U.S. coziness with India last week. He said on C-SPAN TV here that he fears his nation will be ignored once again by the U.S. once troops leave Afghanistan--though that may not happen as soon as some think. He declared the U.S. did not offer much aid in the recent floods there or on other matters of concern to Pakistan.
I notice that Pakistan is not on Obama's list of nations to visit. Obviously deliberate.
Wonder what's going on?

As for China, its extension of economic power is bound to bring some conflicts like its recent quarrel with Japan (which I don't fully understand).
The usual process of economic growth in large nations is a temptation to use some military muscle. And China is modernizing its armed forces.

Your prediction that China "will suffer a relapse when its politics catch up with its economics..." suggests that nation will have more internal turmoil. Where will that lead?

[Moggy]

Your prediction that China "will suffer a relapse when its politics catch up with its economics..." suggests that nation will have more internal turmoil. Where will that lead?

The mixture of authoritarian Government with increasingly free market economics takes China further and further away from any communist or socialist model, and toward the kind of set up we could recognise in Europe in the Fascist states of Spain, Italy, Portugal in the 1930s. But China is China and not Europe, and has no tradition of democracy or the civil society necessary to maintain democracy.

Perhaps a better comparison are the countries like South Korea - tiger economies when they were one party autocracies, but once the population tasted enough wealth to worry about things other than where the next plate of rice was coming from they demanded political reform and representative government. Much the same will happen in China and the current ruling class will have to make their mind up whether they are going to drive tanks over the protestors again, or make some pathetic gesture and fade away like they did in the USSR.

My guess is that it will take application of violence to gain political reform in China.

[Wudpecker]

My guess is that it will take application of violence to gain political reform in China.

That's certainly a good guess, given the historical model of violent political changes that have taken place as a matter of course almost everywhere in the world.
We have few exceptions. But there are some recently.
China IS China, though, not the West. It may surprise us. As it already has. Its history is not only the usual violence of its ancient past as it grew to be a dominant nation in the East and more recently like the Red Guard youth revolution within, but some very subtle and practical ways of dealing with internal change.

I am astounded at the way China's leadership has dealt with economic entrepreneurs as part of the Fascist model of state control you mention. That wealthy individuals are allowed to rise again in a Communist country is amazing. I suppose the Fascist model needs them.
China's premier and top leadership has managed a successful and peaceful economic revolution in a couple of decades that Mao Tse Tsung could only dream about.
They have done this while keeping iron control politically. Without the open and messy thinking of democracies.
As you say, how long can such progress last?

China's leadership does have the very recent collapse of Communism in the Soviet Union to think about and use as an example to avoid. Or use as a model for bloodless revolution.